< urlset xmlns="http://www.google.com/schemas/sitemap/0.84"> < url> < loc>http://www.proliferationpress.blogspot.com/ < lastmod>2006-11-29 < changefreq>hourly < priority>0.8

Proliferation Press

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Britain on Path to Revamping Nuclear Deterrent

Brown's smooth moves & Looking Ahead to Parliamentary Debate

Updating an earlier posting on Gordon Brown's commitment to revamping Britain's nuclear deterrent, Jack Straw (once Foreign Minister now Commons Leader) has promised a full parliamentary debate and vote on the measure before any decision is made (reported in the Guardian earlier today).

This latest political maneuver reflects the attempt of Blair & Gordon to give weight to Labour concerns with the proposal, while also guaranteeing that the Trident nuclear force is updated.

As James Kirkup points out in the Scotsman, Gordon Brown's deterrent announcement in June was unexpected and caused considerable anger among 'traditional' Labour supporters (Greens and Union groups). Yet, it was also a necessary one: Brown needs prove his security credentials before his long awaited raise to Prime Minister. Such thinking reflect fears that Labour today may be seen as Labour in 1983, when the party wrote "longest suicide note in history": placing in their party manifesto a commitment to full, unilateral nuclear disarmament.

So it seems that Brown has successfully proved his 'independence' from 'traditional Labour' but still has permitted them their time to vent. This political move was shrewd: surprise announcement (Brown shows leadership and minimized any attempt by opponents in the party to block the proposal since the public a) supports the move and b) the evitable 'follow the leader' effect), followed by the expected anger in the backbench, now followed by a lengthy debate and vote which 1) allows the backbench to moan and grown and 2) still spells success for the revamped deterrent owing to Conservative support.

Gordon and Blair have successfully played the expectations game. Knowing that any proposal would--barring a shocking development-- pass, they minimized any backlash by showing things could always be worse: Brown's earlier announcement committed Britain to revamping its nuclear deterrent without any floor vote. Now by agreeing/'caving' on the need for a full debate, Gordon and Blair 'appear' to have given in these opposing voices: making it easier for these groups prove to their supporters they have achieved something, while still failing to actually change the policy.

Net-result: a controversial policy within Labour is adopted without alienating supporters.

But what is the exact plan?

What will be interesting is how the government presents this plan to opponents both within and outside Labour (meaning the Social Democrats). What will be the exact details of the revamped deterrence plan? And finally, how will Labour-- while updating their nuclear force-- still project 1) Britain as a role model for counter-proliferation and 2) Labour critical role in both keeping Britain strong but also in line with 'progressive' policies.

All these questions and more will be answered with the actual commencement of parliamentary debate. And I'll be sure to bring it to you here in condensed form, at Proliferation Press.

References

"MPs will get nuclear deterrent vote"; Guardian Unlimited. July 20, 2006.

Kirkup, James. "Britain 'will keep' nuclear deterrent" ; The Scotsman. June 22, 2006.

"Gordon Brown reaffirms Britain's 'Independent Nuclear Deterrent'"; Proliferation Press. June 26th, 2006.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home